Airtel.. time to buy this stock?

Airtel posted its quarterly loss this week. A giant battered down by Reliance Jio, hurt by predatory pricing by the reliance juggernaut.

There are so many places that one sees airtel trying to match the jio prices and also not losing its customers.

That may be the bottom for this stock. Why? Because the signs are changing ( no financial analysis needed for all of this)

I am a broadband user of airtel. And have been for the last 10 years. The service is good.. though the prices were high.

With jio coming in , airtel gave away smart discounts.. smart in the sense that it was a discount for the next 6 months and not a permanent reduction of the mrp.. very similar to the corporate world where companies give a retention bonus.. for the next one year while not giving any increase in fixed pay increase.

So.. now that the six months has gone.. i find that airtel is not giving any more of these discounts... and even threatening to shift doesnt help... they are at their wits end in the race for survival.

This change in demeanour leads me to believe that their moving to black ie profits is just a matter of a max few quarters away.

Its time to buy...

Looking at whats happening around .. and taking heed..

Thats simplefinancialsense!

Banks Profit going to be impacted

Over the next quarter will show banks net income margins come under much higher pressure than ever seen.

The higher interest rates on savings accounts and the higher fd rates while credit growth has been slowing down is the main cause for this.

Even the forecasted growth for india's GDP has come down to <7%..

This is reflected in the fact that the bankex has dropped significantly down.

These pressures should be seen in the q3 results which should be announced soon.

The only silver lining for these stocks and this sector is the reversal of the interest rate cycle by the RBI in January.

Let's hope that happens.. In the meantime stay away from bank stocks.

Be smart

Advanced Tax Numbers-- What do they imply?

Every qtr, companies need to pay advance tax as per the schedule given in the Income Tax act. While these numbers are provided they give us as investors some good information on potential earnings of companies before the results season starts. Hence market forces eagerly look forward to this leading indicator to companies performances.

So if the advanced tax numbers are higher than last quarter or YOY ( year on year) it indicates healthy performance of the company and  a price movement in the scrip is expected.

However, sometimes we should be careful of these numbers and there could be some exceptions.

1. There could have been an exception income for the company because of which tax out go could be higher.
2. The comparison should be YOY or quarter on quarter
3. Some companies may be in a tax free environment and hence the tax outgo comparisons may not work at all.


But here are some details of the recent advanced tax numbers--- all of them giving  a positive signal to the healthy performance of these companies. Great, Same, worse

                                                     Now           Last year


RIL                                                770             365

ACC                                              330               340

Infosys                                           250               125

Union Bank of India                       185              253

ICICI                                            350             250

Asian Paints                                    60             43

SBI                                              1857             1810

Tata Motors                                   115                0

BOB                                              300             280

Zee entertainment                            97            109

Tata steel                                       513               406

L&T                                              270              275

Bajaj Auto                                    177                60

M&M                                           235                  0

So the ones in blue should have or can move up in the coming few days....  this is one of the reasons that in todays trade reliance was up 4%!
 
Hope this adds to your understanding of the market...
 
Happy investing.

PS: If you like the post--please leave a comment and subscribe to these posts using the links on the right.

Market fall-- Some juicy opportunities

A friend recently asked me where the opportunities for some good picks are -- when i wrote the post on grab it with both hands....

so todays a good example--- we had some good stocks which fell down 8% today due to bad earnings-- but because of special reasons-- tech mahindra as an example... it fell 8% today--- hope u made use of this chance to grab this stock.


another example-- unitech-- it has fallen 15% over the last few days.... or HDIL... ( but this sector could fall more--- so wait a while)

Here are my picks

1. Unitech
2. HDIL
3. Tech mahindra ( read what the ceo had to say)
4. Reliance
5. PSU stocks --- with the disinvestment not far away :)

read my post again if you are not clued onto what I am talking about-- "when it breaks - Grab it with both hands"

Happy Investing.

(if you like the post-- click on the follow link and join the subscription through email)